High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.
Identifieur interne : 000593 ( 2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000592; suivant : 000594High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.
Auteurs : Steven Sanche ; Yen Ting Lin ; Chonggang Xu ; Ethan Romero-Severson ; Nick Hengartner ; Ruian KeSource :
- Emerging infectious diseases [ 1080-6059 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
DOI: 10.3201/eid2607.200282
PubMed: 32255761
Affiliations:
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pubmed:32255761Le document en format XML
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Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R<sub>0</sub>) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R<sub>0</sub> value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Hengartner, Nick" sort="Hengartner, Nick" uniqKey="Hengartner N" first="Nick" last="Hengartner">Nick Hengartner</name><name sortKey="Ke, Ruian" sort="Ke, Ruian" uniqKey="Ke R" first="Ruian" last="Ke">Ruian Ke</name><name sortKey="Lin, Yen Ting" sort="Lin, Yen Ting" uniqKey="Lin Y" first="Yen Ting" last="Lin">Yen Ting Lin</name><name sortKey="Romero Severson, Ethan" sort="Romero Severson, Ethan" uniqKey="Romero Severson E" first="Ethan" last="Romero-Severson">Ethan Romero-Severson</name><name sortKey="Sanche, Steven" sort="Sanche, Steven" uniqKey="Sanche S" first="Steven" last="Sanche">Steven Sanche</name><name sortKey="Xu, Chonggang" sort="Xu, Chonggang" uniqKey="Xu C" first="Chonggang" last="Xu">Chonggang Xu</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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